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Join AMS commodities analyst Rich Balvanz for early morning market comments on your local affiliate of the Iowa Agribusiness Radio Network.  Find your local affiliate by clicking the Broadcast Comments button at left.

Today's market headline items to take to the coffee shop this morning......

Good morning.  Corn is up 3 cents while soybeans and wheat are down 1 cent. Cattle futures are mixed while hogs are mainly higher.
 
Global markets are awaiting release of US quarterly economic growth figures later this morning. Economists predict the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3 percent in the Sep-Dec quarter.  But even with a strong finish, economists believe the economy expanded only 1.7 percent for the entire year, or roughly half the growth achieved in 2010.  Meanwhile, negotiations over a Greek debt swap grind on.   In early trade March crude oil is up $0.25 at $99.95 per barrel.  March gold is down $4.70 at $1723.90 per ounce.  March US dollar index futures are down 0.173 at 79.340.  March S&P 500 futures are up 1.25 at 1316.50.
 
The corn futures market during the past two weeks has reconfirmed the fact that nearby prices as low as $5.70 per bushel are far too cheap, especially when the market is faced with tightening global wheat stocks.  As little as one month ago it seemed inconceivable that concerns would arise over export availability of wheat from the Black Sea region, but that is the case today.  Not only are have large harvests been quickly absorbed by the global market, forecasters predict as much as a 30 percent drop in this year’s harvest in Ukraine due to poor winter crop conditions.  As a result, wheat prices have gained on corn, helping to provide the lift needed by the corn market to convince users that further price declines will at least have to wait until the US is more certain about the level of acreage farmers intend to plant in 2012.  The weekly corn price chart shows corn futures are within striking distance of fully retracing the losses incurred following the January USDA crop reports.  March corn closed at $6.51 the day prior to the report and traded as high as $6.45 this week. The weekly wheat price chart shows a similar performance as corn.  But in this case, wheat has already surpassed the price levels seen immediately ahead of the USDA report and I pushing toward the highest levels of the year thus far as funds cover their record short positions in wheat.
 
Corn export business is picking up, as reflected by the highest export premiums offered at this time of year in at least a decade.  Tight holding by producers has squeezed supplies headed to the Gulf by barge to a trickle, triggering the rapid rise in premiums.
 
Soybeans are struggling to  simply remain unchanged this morning.  Recent rainfall in South America has stabilized crops there.  In fact, the hardest hit state of Parana, Brazil, how now recorded precipitation totals 42 percent above average this month, following a month of 45 percent below average rainfall in December.  The only Brazilian state with significantly below average rainfall this month is Rio Grande do Sul, according to Brazil’s weather service.  Southern Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay promise to be dry for the next several days, with light showers are expected over the bulk of Brazil.
 
South America Ag Weather Watch
 
1-2 Day Outlook: Shower and thundershower activity is expected today and Saturday across northern portions of center-south Brazil into north-central Brazil. Rainfall totals of 0.25-1.00 inch (6-25 mm), locally heavier are expected for 2 day totals. Generally dry weather is expected for southern Brazil and Paraguay southward across Argentina during the next 48 hours. Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal across southeastern and north-central Brazil with near to above normal readings elsewhere. Temperatures will warm to above normal across Argentina and Paraguay by Saturday.
 
3-5 Day Outlook: In Brazil, scattered showers and thundershowers across Mato Grosso and MGDS Saturday through Monday. Mostly dry weather or a few light showers from southern MGDS southward Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal across the south and near to below normal across the north during this  period.  For Argentina, mostly dry or a few light showers west with a few showers and thundershowers southeast Sunday, scattered showers and thundershowers Monday and Tuesday but it turns drier south and southeast Tuesday.  Temperatures average above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday.
 
6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal in all areas with above normal readings returning to Paraguay, northern Argentina and RGDS, Brazil. Rainfall is expected to average near to below normal but late period showers are possible across Argentina.